Taylor Swift Favored to Win 2023 Grammy, But in Which Category?

Taylor Swift Favored to Win 2023 Grammy, But in Which Category?
By Jeff Parker
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

The 65th annual Grammy Awards air live on Feb. 5 from the Crypto.com Arena – formerly known as the Staples Center – in Los Angeles. Hosted by comedian Trevor Noah for the third straight year, the Grammys are presented by the Recording Academy of the United States to recognize the year’s biggest achievements in music and the recording arts.

This year, several nominees hail from the Keystone State. To analyze their chances of winning, we at BetPennsylvania – the home of the best Pennsylvania betting promotions – offer a set of hypothetical odds.

Taylor Swift Leads Pack of Grammy Nominees From Pennsylvania

Taylor Swift has earned 11 Grammy Awards and has been nominated more than 40 times in her career, spanning more than a decade. Swifties will be rooting for her again this year because she is nominated for another four Grammys.

In addition to Swift, the Pennsylvania nominees in 2023 include indie rockers The War on Drugs, R&B songstress Jazmine Sullivan, and The Roots drummer Questlove.

So do they have a shot at winning?

Wagers aren’t available from PA sportsbooks, but here are the hypothetical odds we’re offering.

Hypothetical Grammy Betting Odds For Pennsylvania Nominees

NomineeOdds of at least 1 Grammy win
Taylor Swift -2000
The War on Drugs +700
Questlove +1000
Jazmine Sullivan +1400

Taylor Swift: Four Nominations — 1/20

Taylor Swift is certain to add to her already impressive Grammys track record this year. We’re putting her chances to win at 1/20. That’s -2000 in American odds, or a 95.2% implied probability.

The only woman to win the Album of the Year twice at the Grammys as a solo artist, Swift’s best shot this year isn’t for her work behind the microphone, it’s for her work behind the camera! She’s nominated for Best Music Video for her song “All Too Well,” which the West Reading native directed. 

“All Too Well” is also nominated for Song of the Year, while re-recording of “I Bet You Think About Me” snagged a nom as the Best Country Song. Swift’s fourth nomination is for “Carolina,” written for the film Where the Crawdads Sing. That one is on the category of Best Song Written for Visual Media. 

But it doesn’t matter if any of her nominated songs win an award for Swift, 33. Her music video will. While fans were bummed to learn recently that "All Too Well: The Short Film" wasn’t shortlisted for an Oscar, that only speaks to how well regarded it was to even be considered.

The War on Drugs: Best Rock Song — 7/1

Formed out of Philadelphia in the mid-2000s, indie rockers The War on Drugs won Best Rock Album at the Grammys in 2018. This year, they’re nominated for the song “Harmonia’s Dream” from their latest album I Don’t Live Here Anymore.

“Harmonia’s Dream” is a terrific song — emblematic of the band’s characteristic earnestness, big sound and genre-bending arrangements — but we give it just 12.5% implied odds of winning. That’s because of the stiff competition in this category.

Nominated alongside “Harmonia” is “Broken Horses” by Brandi Carlile. With seven total noms this year, Carlile is also up for Album of the Year and Record of the Year categories. Though she’s unlikely to win those two awards, she seems certain to take home one of the Rock categories as a consolation prize. The Best Rock Song category also features rock royalty Ozzy Osbourne and the Red Hot Chili Peppers.

The War on Drugs have an outside shot here, but even if PA casino apps offered odds on it, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Questlove: Best Audio Book, Narration and Storytelling Recording — 10/1

Another familiar face in the crowd on Grammy night will be Questlove. The Roots drummer and Philadelphia native has been nominated for 18 Grammys, winning six. In addition, he has been recognized across a number of categories, reflecting his vast range of talents as an artist. 

Winning multiple Grammys with The Roots, including one for his work as a producer, in 2016 Questlove won Best Musical Theater Album. as part of the team behind the best-selling recording of the smash Broadway hit "Hamilton." Just last year, Questlove, 51, won Best Music Film for his documentary "Summer of Soul," the true story behind the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival — sometimes called the Black Woodstock. 

This year he’s nominated for Best Audio Book, Narration and Storytelling Recording. Unfortunately, I don’t think Quest’s a real contender to win again in 2023. We put his odds at 10/1, implying he has about a 9% chance of winning. Most often, this Grammy is awarded to a performer reading their own memoir. Though he does narrate it, Questlove’s book “Music is History” is an analysis of American history through the lens of popular music.

Oscar winner Viola Davis, nominated for her recording of her memoir “Finding Me,” is a far more likely winner here.

Jazmine Sullivan: Three nominations — 14/1

With two wins and 18 nominations, R&B superstar Jazmine Sullivan, a 35-year-old and another notable musical talent to come out of Philly, is no stranger to Grammy success.

But it’s not going to be easy to put any more tallies in the win column this year; we only give Sullivan a 6.7% implied probability of doing so. Sullivan is nominated against Beyoncé in all three of her categories – Best R&B Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance and Best R&B Song – and this is widely seen as being a huge year for Queen Bey at the Grammys.

Beyoncé might not sweep all three awards, but category-mates Mary J. Blige and newcomer Muni Long are each more likely to pull off the upset than Sullivan.

At 14/1, we’re suggesting that there’s about a 93% chance Jazmine Sullivan goes home empty handed.

The odds at PA online casino sites are quite a bit better than that, so stay with us for the best news, reviews and more on those.

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Contributors

Jeff Parker is an entertainment writer for PennStakes.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.

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