Will Bryce Harper Crack The 3,000 Hit Club?

Will Bryce Harper Crack The 3,000 Hit Club?
By Lou Monaco
Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder/designated hitter Bryce Harper had a postseason to remember in 2022 across PA sportsbooks.

The 30-year-old Harper led the Phillies to their first World Series appearance since 2009 with six home runs and 13 RBI in 17 postseason games, highlighted by a NLCS-clinching two-run home run in the eighth inning of Game 5 versus the San Diego Padres on Oct. 23. 

The Phillies then lost to the Houston Astros, 4-2, in the best-of-seven World Series. 

Harper this past season had 18 home runs with 65 RBI with a .286 batting average in 370 at-bats. He did not play from June 26 through Aug. 25 due to injury, which remains the biggest threat to his productivity in his hopeful march to Cooperstown.  

Quest to 3,000 hits

During this past MLB season, Tigers DH Miguel Cabrera became the 33rd player in MLB history to join the illustrious 3,000 hit club. 

As always, fans start clamoring to look for the next player possible to do so, but with the current crop of active players, it looks very unlikely based on the trends of past 3,000 hit players. 

With the lower batting average across MLB the past few years and the shortened pandemic season, it is worth asking if any active player even has a chance. 

Unfortunately for Harper, he would have less than stellar odds on PA sportsbooks apps.  

PennStakes.com utilized ZIPs Projection on FanGraphs.com and past trends of 3,000 hit players at each age to determine the possibility of Harper becoming the 34th player to accomplish the feat. 

Let's just say he'd be quite a longshot at BetMGM Sportsbook PA.

Odds of Joining The 3,000 Hit Club

Player Current Age Current # of Hits Percentage Chance Odds
Bryce Harper 30 13792%+4900


Taking A Seat On The Bench

The fact that Harper at 30 years old currently sits at only 1,379 hits, less than halfway to the mark, would mean the hard-playing former phenom would need to stay remarkably healthy over the next decade, the only metric Harper has failed to live up to so far in his career.

When crunching the combination of Harper’s age (30) and number of hits (1,379), PennStakes.com determined the Las Vegas native has just a 2%, or +4900 chance, of reaching the 3,000-hit plateau.  

Harper will be extending his off-season rest when the Phillies' 2023 regular season starts on the road against the Texas Rangers on March 30-April 2 and New York Yankees on April 3-5.

The seven-time All-Star, who has hit 285 career home runs, underwent successful right elbow UCL reconstruction/repair with ulnar nerve transposition on Nov. 23 with Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles. 

The hoped prognosis is that Harper can return as the team’s designated hitter by the 2023 All-Star break (July 10-13) with a possible return to right field towards the end of the regular season. 

It will be a wait-and-see approach for the defending NL champions, and that timeline makes it even more unlikely Harper can threaten the 3,000 hit mark. 

Stay close to PennStakes.com for more research items like this, as well as information on the best PA gambling sites.

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Contributors

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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