Can the Steelers Keep Their Long Winning Streak Alive?

Can the Steelers Keep Their Long Winning Streak Alive?
By Marcus Mosher
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

No one has had sustained success longer than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers have had 18 consecutive non-losing seasons and are just two seasons away from tying the record set by the Dallas Cowboys (1966-1985). But as people involved in Pennsylvania sports betting know, it's a new world for the Steelers entering the 2022 season, as Ben Roethlisberger won't be on the roster for the first time in nearly two decades.

Can the Steelers keep this streak alive?

In an effort to analyze just that, PennStakes.com utilized ProFootballReference.com to determine the trends that we found by gathering the statistics of all teams that lost an all-time QB in the Top 12 of all-time passing yards. We analyzed their record and statistics in the last year of having that QB and then the following season without them. The study analyzed nine quarterbacks that moved on from their team. Look for insights into pro and college teams at PennStakes.com as well as PA sports betting promotions.

QBTeamSeasons
🏈  Drew BreesSaints2020-21
🏈  Peyton ManningColts2010-11
🏈  Brett FavrePackers2007-08
🏈  Philip RiversChargers2019-20
🏈  Matthew StaffordLions2020-21
🏈  John ElwayBroncos1998-99
🏈  Tom BradyPatriots2019-20
🏈  Dan MarinoDolphins1999-2000
🏈  Eli ManningGiants2019-20

 

What Our Research Shows

As you would expect, teams got worse in the following season when their franchise quarterback left. But how much worse? Quite a bit. According to the study, the average amount of wins dropped by 3.4 games for each team. In addition, the offenses significantly declined as they dropped more than 10 spots in the points per game rankings. 

Six of these nine teams made the playoffs in the last season with their franchise quarterback. Only one made it back the following season: the Miami Dolphins in 2000 when they went 11-5 with Jay Fiedler at quarterback. Not even the Packers with Aaron Rodgers following Brett Favre made it back to the playoffs the following season. 

It’s worth mentioning that of the nine teams that moved on from their franchise quarterback, only two of those teams had winning seasons the following year. History has shown it’s hard to move on from an all-time great quarterback and sustain success the following season.

One of the myriad of trends for people familiar with PA sports betting apps.

Can This Steelers Team Beat the Odds?

So . . . can the Steelers be the team to buck that trend? They have a few things going for them, including that Roethlisberger held them back more in 2021 than he helped.

Roethlisberger averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt last season, the fewest of his career (minimum three starts). He also had his worst QB rating (35.6) and the Steelers finished with one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

While Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett might not be much better than Roethlisberger, it's hard to fathom them being worse. At the same time, oddsmakers in Pennsylvania NFL betting aren't exactly counting on this team to win many games.

In addition, they are a distant fourth in their division to win the AFC North and their odds of making the playoffs are very low despite doing so in each of the last two seasons.

Right now FanDuel Sportsbook PA has the Steelers’ odds to make the playoffs at +330 and the over-under wins total at 7.5.

Meanwhile, BetMGM Sportsbook PA has the Steelers a distant fourth to win the AFC North at +900, behind the Baltimore Ravens (+145), the Cincinnati Bengals (+175) and even the Cleveland Browns (+375).

Still, it's going to be hard to replace the experience of a Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. He was still fantastic at the end of games and provided some stability on offense. But if the Steelers want to continue their streak of 18 non-losing seasons, the offense will have to be better in 2022. And it's probably a good thing that the Steelers did move on from Roethlisberger, as it was clear he was in decline and so was the offense.

Here is a look at what PennStakes.com found for teams the year after the star quarterbacks departed:

Avg. Drop in Wins3.4 less
% Teams Making Playoffs66% to 11%
Teams Winning Year After2 of 9
Avg. Drop in Off. Rankings10.3 places
 
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Contributors

Marcus Mosher covers the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news for PennStakes.com. The managing editor of The Raiders Wire is also a contributor to The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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