Author
Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Where Pirates’ Paul Skenes Ranks For Best Pitching Seasons on Bad Teams
The reigning National League Rookie of the Year is having a dynamite season on a team that’s a dud.
Paul Skenes leads MLB in Wins Above Replacement (4.4) among pitchers. Yet the right-hander is 4-7 through 18 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even with a losing record, he’s the Cy Young Award favorite at FanDuel PA Sportsbook, at -140 odds as of July 3.
To get a sense of where Skenes stands among pitchers who thrived in the face of teamwide mediocrity, PennStakes.com broke down starters who finished with the highest WAR per start figures since 2014.
Highest WAR Per Start For Pitchers On Losing Teams Since 2014
Pitcher, Year, Team | WAR Per Start | Team Record |
Aaron Nola, 2018 Phillies | 0.294 | 80-82 |
Jacob DeGrom, 2018 Mets | 0.294 | 77-85 |
Paul Skenes, 2024 Pirates | 0.257 | 76-86 |
Paul Skenes, 2025 Pirates | 0.250 | 38-50 (through July 3) |
Sandy Alcantara, 2022 Marlins | 0.250 | 69-93 |
Mike Minor, 2019 Rangers | 0.250 | 78-84 |
Hunter Greene, 2024 Reds | 0.238 | 77-85 |
Chris Sale, 2014 White Sox | 0.238 | 73-89 |
Lance Lynn, 2019 Rangers | 0.233 | 78-84 |
Shohei Ohtani, 2022 Angels | 0.221 | 73-89 |
Cole Hamels, 2014 Phillies | 0.213 | 73-89 |
Jake Arrieta, 2014 Cubs | 0.212 | 73-89 |
Dylan Cease, 2022 White Sox | 0.200 | 81-81 |
Sonny Gray, 2019 Reds | 0.200 | 75-87 |
Johnny Cueto, 2014 Reds | 0.194 | 76-86 |
Sonny Gray, 2015 Athletics | 0.174 | 68-94 |
Zac Gallen, 2022 Diamondbacks | 0.171 | 74-88 |
Logan Webb, 2023 Giants | 0.170 | 79-83 |
Carlos Rodon, 2022 Giants | 0.168 | 81-81 |
Marcus Stroman, 2017 Blue Jays | 0.155 | 76-86 |
This analysis comes from PennStakes.com, where you can find the best PA sportsbook promo codes. The pitchers in the chart are sorted by average WAR (Wins Above Replacement) per start, with data from Baseball-Reference.com, on teams with losing records since 2014. Two non-winning teams (finishing 81-81) are also included. The 2020 season, which was shortened to 60 games because of restrictions related to COVID-19, was excluded.
Is his 2024 MLB debut, Skenes – a No. 1 overall draft pick out of LSU in 2023 – was 11-3 for a Pirates team that finished 76-86. He had a 5.9 WAR, as measured by Baseball Reference data, in 23 starts for a 0.257 WAR per start average.
This season, Skenes has a 4.4 WAR through 18 starts this season, which leads all pitchers in MLB. At .250 WAR per start, he’s fourth on our list of best seasons for pitchers on a losing team, and he has another three months to build up that figure even further.
But Pittsburgh Pirates playoff odds are extremely slim, with the team floundering at 38-50 entering play on July 3.
NEW SPORTSBOOK
Must be 21+ to participate and present in PA. Minimum wager $5. Minimum odds -500 or greater. $10 minimum deposit. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. Available in app only. Max. prize, game restrictions, time limits and T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Where Paul Skenes Stands
Of course, Skenes’ inclusion on our list assumes the Pirates wind up with a losing record again in 2025. Overall, his impressive stats to date this season don’t quite live up to his ROY-level performance a season ago, when the former No. 1 pick posted a 0.257 WAR per start figure. But he’s very close.
Overall, Skenes has gone 15-10 with 10.3 WAR in 41 career starts in the Steel City, giving him a per-start WAR average of 0.251, an impressive start to his career for the 23-year-old California native.
His 4-7 record is largely due to poor run support (the Pirates have averaged 3.4 runs in games he starts) and a bullpen that has squandered the lead twice in games where Skenes left with a lead.
PennStakes.com offers Pennsylvania sports betting coverage and more MLB insights all season.
Top Pitchers During Losing Seasons
Who are the pitchers with the best seasons on losing teams since 2014?
In 2018, Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies and Jacob DeGrom of the New York Mets posted dueling 0.294 WAR per start numbers. Philly went 80-82 and New York limped through a 77-85 campaign that year.
Third on the list is Skenes with his performance last season – followed by his numbers so far in 2025. His 0.250 WAR per start this year ranks in a tie for fourth with Sandy Alcantara of the 2002 Miami Marlins and Mike Minor of 2019 Texas Rangers. Both finished those campaigns with 8.0 WAR totals in 32 starts apiece.
Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox (2014) and Hunter Greene of the Cincinnati Reds (2024) are next on the list as both southpaws posting 0.238 WAR per start figures. Lance Lynn of 2019 Texas Rangers had the seventh-highest figure on a team at or below .500, at 0.233 WAR per start.
The good news for Skenes is that he is on pace to smash his WAR total from 2024 – plus he leads MLB with a 2.03 ERA. The bad news is, bet365 Pennsylvania Sportsbook has Pittsburgh at an over/under of 69.5 wins in 2025, with -110 odds on either side.
USA Today photo by Charles LeClaire
Cited by leading media organizations, such as:
