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Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Penn State Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Nittany Lions’ 2025-26 Bowl Game
The championship-or-bust expectations placed by many upon this year’s Penn State football team are intact after the non-conference portion of the season. The Big Ten stalwart is 3-0 for the year with easy wins over Nevada, Florida International and Villanova.
As the Nittany Lions approach the team’s bye week before the Big Ten slate begins, PennStakes.com compiled some hypothetical odds on where head coach James Franklin and company are head this bowl season.
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Odds For Nittany Lions’ 2025-26 Bowl Game
Bowl, Location | Conference Opponent | Odds | Pct. Chance |
College Football Playoff First Round, TBD | TBD | +105 | 48.8% |
College Football Playoff Quarterfinal, TBD | TBD | +235 | 29.9% |
Cheez-It Citrus, Orlando | Big Ten vs. SEC | +1500 | 6.3% |
ReliaQuest, Tampa | Big Ten vs. SEC or ACC | +1500 | 6.3% |
Music City, Nashville | Big Ten vs. SEC | +1750 | 5.4% |
The Field |
| +2750 | 3.5% |
Disclaimer: These odds were developed by and are exclusive to PennStakes.com, but regulated operators offering top PA sportsbook promos will offer wagers on each college game, plus futures betting and more.
A year after breaking through the school’s CFP glass ceiling by blasting SMU and Boise State, before falling to Notre Dame in the CFP semis 27-24 at the Orange Bowl, it appears that this year’s Nittany Lions can return to the 12-team CFP field. We’re giving Penn State +105 odds of winding up in the CFP first round again and +235 odds that they get a bye through to the CFP quarterfinals as one of the top four teams in the final CFP rankings.
That would give Pennsylvania sports betting customers a lot to be excited about this winter.
Penn State, now No. 2 in the Associated Press media poll, will have to hold court during the Big Ten conference’s nine-game schedule, beginning with the home clash against sixth-ranked Oregon on Sept. 27 in Happy Valley. Franklin and company also face a test at No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 1 among other potential Big Ten stumbling blocks.
But as of Sept. 16, oddsmakers at bet365 PA Sportsbook give the Keystone State program the second-best odds of winning the CFP title in 2025, at +650.
Should Penn State fall short of reaching the 12-team CFP field, keep an eye on Orlando’s Cheez-It Citrus Bowl or the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, which hold matching +1500 odds of landing the Nittany Lions this bowl season. Nashville’s Music City Bowl has the longest odds of any destination, at +1750.
For now, Franklin is tasked with holding court against the Ducks when they come to Happy Valley. NBC will air the game live nationally at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time, kicking off a stretch that includes road games against unranked UCLA (on Oct. 4) and Iowa (on Oct. 18), plus an Oct. 11 home clash against unranked Northwestern.
Bookmark our separate Penn State College Football Playoff odds page here.
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Penn State Recent Bowl Game History
Year | Bowl | Result |
2024 | CFP Semifinal, Orange Bowl | Loss, 27-24 vs. Notre Dame |
2024 | CFP quarterfinal, Fiesta Bowl | Win, 31-14 vs. Boise State |
2024 | CFP first round | Win, 38-10 vs. SMU |
2023 | Peach Bowl | Loss, 38-25 vs. Ole Miss |
2022 | Rose Bowl | Win, 35-21 vs. Utah |
2021 | Outback Bowl | Loss, 24-10 vs. Arkansas |
2020 | No Bowl Game |
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Franklin's team came up just short in the CFP semifinal against Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish last season, but we like PSU’s chances of getting back to the 12-team field this year. The program is no stranger to big-time bowls – in 2023, the Nittany Lions lost to Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, and the year before they defeated Utah in the Rose Bowl.
Penn State’s most recent trip to Orlando came on Jan. 1, 2019, when the team’s 11-2 campaign ended with a 27-24 loss to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. In 2021, a disappointing 7-6 season finished with a 24-10 loss to Arkansas in Tampa, at the game then called the Outback Bowl (it’s now the ReliaQuest Bowl). Penn State has never played a bowl game in Nashville, potentially opening the door for a small piece of program history in 2025.
Q&A
For the current 2025-26 college football season, Penn State is currently projected to play in the first round of the College Football Playoff with the odds at +105 (48.8% chance).
It’s too early in the season for the Nittany Lions to be bowl eligible. Their most recent bowl game was in the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal loss against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.
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