Is Pennsylvania A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?

The Pennsylvania Democrat and Republican Primaries will be held a little more than two months from today (Tuesday, April 23) with 16 delegates up for the Democrats and 159 up for the Republican side.

After that, the state will have a little more than six months until Decision Day 2024.

Utilizing the average results of three current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, PennStakes.com developed the following odds of how Pennsylvania will vote in 2024. The 3 polls were “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult” and “Susquehanna Polling.”

Here are the anticipated results for Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5. Stick with PennStakes.com for more updates ahead of Decision Day, plus all news around PA sportsbooks.

Is Pennsylvania a Red or Blue State in 2024?

Party	Odds	Pct. Chance
Democrat (Blue)	-105	51.2%
Republican (Red)	+105	48.7%

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Recent Pennsylvania Voting In Presidential Elections

Election Year	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
2020	Joe Biden (50.0%)	Donald Trump (48.8%)
2016	Hillary Clinton (47.5%)	Donald Trump (48.2%)
2012	Barack Obama (52%)	Mitt Romney (46.7%)
2008	Barack Obama (54.7%)	John McCain (44.3%)
2004	John Kerry (51%)	George W. Bush (48.5%)

One of the key Election Day battlegrounds, Pennsylvanians voted Democratic in six straight Presidential Elections, until former President Donald Trump won it by just 0.7% in 2016 over Hillary Clinton (48.2% to 47.5%), In 2020, the state remained a hotbed as President Joe Biden - a Pennsylvania native - got the Democrats back in the win column by a mere 1.2% with 50% of the vote to Trump's 48.8%.

With our recent compilation of poll data early on in the election process, it appears the state will go Democrat blue again at -105 (51.2%) to Republican Red +105 (48.8%).

Here are some key voting trends to keep an eye on for the first Tuesday in November:

Between 2000 and 2020, Pennsylvania voted for the winning presidential candidate 66.7% of the time and since 2000, the Keystone State has voted Democratic 83.3% of the time to 16.7% for Republicans.

Just remember to vote!

Author

Lou Monaco

@loumonaco

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.